Confidence Returns: Toronto’s Fall Real Estate Market Finds Its Footing
Lower interest rates, more listings, and a wave of buyer optimism signal a stronger close to 2025.
After months of hesitation, it finally feels like Toronto’s real estate market is catching its breath — and maybe even stretching its legs again.
According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), GTA REALTORS® recorded 5,592 home sales in September 2025, an 8.5% jump year-over-year, while new listings climbed 4% to 19,260. It’s not a full-blown rally yet, but it’s a clear sign that momentum is building.
The difference this time? Confidence.
With borrowing costs easing and talk of another Bank of Canada rate cut before year-end, buyers are stepping back into the game. Affordability is still tight, but homes are sitting on the market a little longer — and that gives buyers some leverage we haven’t seen in years.
The Market Is Moving Again
Even though sales are still below long-term averages, the uptick is a welcome change from the sluggish first half of the year. With mortgage rates finally trending down, more households can afford monthly payments that actually fit their budgets.
Many buyers are also negotiating harder, pulling average selling prices slightly lower — but this isn’t a crash story. It’s a reset, and it’s creating opportunities on both sides of the deal.
Every home sale injects roughly $80,000 in economic activity, from renos and furnishings to moving services. That’s real money flowing back into the economy — and it’s helping offset broader economic uncertainty.
Condos Still Searching for Their Floor
The condo resale market remains the soft spot in the GTA picture. The sales-to-new listings ratio has slipped to 33%, which firmly places it in buyer’s territory.
Prices have dropped 5% year-over-year to $642,195 — the lowest since early 2021 — and down more than 20% from the 2022 peak. It’s been a rough ride for investors, but here’s the silver lining: The price gap between presale and resale condos has narrowed from 40% to 18%.
That’s a sign of stabilization. With fewer condo completions expected after 2026, supply will tighten, and historically, that’s when rents start climbing again. The next few months could quietly become an entry point for investors looking beyond the short-term noise.
Rentals Stay Red Hot
If there’s one segment showing real strength, it’s the rental market.
Leasing activity is outpacing supply, with lease transactions growing faster than new listings. Rents have stabilized around $2,668/month, which is still lower than pandemic-era peaks, but competition is picking up — especially for newer, well-located units.
Active listings dropped 7% year-over-year, tightening inventory and keeping long-term rent growth positive at 3.6% annually. For landlords, it’s a good time to hold. For tenants, it’s still competitive, but not as cutthroat as last year.
What’s Hot in the Market
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Townhouses: Sales are up an impressive 39.2% year-over-year in Toronto’s core. Buyers want space — but without the full cost of a detached home.
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Turnkey Homes: Renovated, move-in-ready properties are selling faster than anything else.
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Condos: Prices dipped, inventory’s high, and buyers have time to make decisions — but this window won’t stay open forever if rates keep dropping.
Looking Ahead: A More Balanced 2026
Heading into the last stretch of 2025, the GTA market is finding its rhythm again. With lower interest rates, steady employment, and a growing sense of optimism, we’re inching toward a more balanced landscape.
If the next rate cut lands as expected, we could see a stronger spring market in 2026 — one driven not just by investors, but by real families ready to buy after sitting out the chaos of the last few years.
Final Thoughts
After a rollercoaster ride of rate hikes and uncertainty, Toronto’s real estate market is regaining confidence. The opportunities right now are subtle — not flashy — but very real.
For buyers, it’s a window to lock in value before prices start firming up again.
For sellers, it’s all about smart pricing, great presentation, and working with professionals who understand where the market’s headed — not just where it’s been.
Because make no mistake — the comeback has begun.
👉 Explore more of our Toronto Real Estate Market Reports for monthly updates.
📍 Stay ahead of the market. For tailored insights or property advice, connect with DASH at www.DashPM.ca or call 416-222-6175.