Toronto October 2023 Condo Market Report

“Massive Development to Transform Toronto Neighborhood”

A transformative development could soon reshape the Caledonia and Eglinton neighbourhood, replacing the existing Canada Goose Headquarters at 250 Bowie Avenue with a massive master-planned community featuring almost 2,000 residential units, retail, park land, and light industrial space.

Developer Hullmark, in partnership with BGO, has signed on UK-based architects Allies and Morrison to design a monumental new mixed-use community for the sprawling 7.3-acre site, that the project team has dubbed Beltline Yards.

Located along the popular York Beltline Trail and just steps from the future Caledonia GO and Eglinton Crosstown LRT station, the project’s plan capitalizes on provincial and municipal planning policies that promote dense development near higher-order transit infrastructure.

Beltline Yards’ unique design reads as a postmodern interpretation of Toronto’s architectural vernacular defined by manufacturing-inspired expressions like prominent horizontal brick banding, factory-style windows, and other exterior details that evoke the area’s past and present character.

“We have been inspired by the York Beltline Trail and the Toronto Beltline Railway, and the incredible opportunity we now have to complete the vision in a modern context,” says Jeff Hull, President of Hullmark.

“We will be using this existing infrastructure to enhance the area, making sure that not only will people—locals and visitors alike—know about it, but will include it in their daily lives,” continued Hull.

The heritage warehouse aesthetic will be further aided by preserving an existing smokestack that stands over the Belt Line Trail. The smokestack would live on as the centrepiece in a 4,000-square-metre public area featuring landscaping from SvN.

This space would be just one element in approximately one acre (43,000 square feet) of publicly accessible park, an open-air covered yard, and over 10,000 square feet of community space at the site’s interior.

In total, almost four acres adding up to close to 50 per cent of the total site area, of open space. The proposal also aims to improve the main outdoor amenity in the neighbourhood through improvements to the adjacent York Beltline Trail.

“As architects, we have been dealt with the very interesting specificities of this site,” says Alfredo Caraballo, Partner at Allies and Morrison.

Caraballo notes how the project “relates to the York Beltline Trail so the landscape connects to a wider network; how it relates to the industrial uses around it so a culture of making and light industry remains as an intrinsic part of the character; how it relates to the public transport transformation of the area so that it unlocks many opportunities to live and work here.”

“All these result in a design response that could only be here – a place ‘of its place.'”

The project team anticipates full approval of the multi-phased project and shovel-ready status for its initial phase at some point in 2026.

As for Canada Goose, the winterwear brand has signed a lease for a new headquarters in the recently-completed 100 Queens Quay office tower.

“Revision Of Toronto Housing Forecast Due To Tanking Market But Prices Are Still Going Up”

Toronto’s real estate market may be in a months-long slump thanks to prohibitive interest rates, but despite a serious plunge in the number of sales, prices haven’t been following suit — and some stakeholders are saying they are due to actually increase by the end of the year.

The experts at Royal LePage have amended their earlier prediction for the direction the market will go as we head into winter in light of perpetually low sales volumes each month, but still anticipate the average price of a home in the GTA will rise 9 per cent from what it was at the same time last year (versus the 11 per cent they had forecasted earlier).

This figure is based on the fact that prices in the region were up 4.5 per cent in the third quarter of this year compared with the third quarter of 2022, hitting $1,147,400 — an amount that was notably 2.8 per cent lower than what the typical home was selling for in the previous quarter of the year.

If the realty firm is correct, prices in the Toronto area will surge up to around $1,164,665, which marks the second-largest jump for any of the Canadian locales surveyed.

Only Calgary is set to see its average home price accelerate more — by 9.5 per cent instead of 9, but to a much lower $656,015.

Out of the cities included in this latest report, Regina is set to stay the cheapest place in which to purchase a home, with a projected price of $373,984, on average, by year’s end. Next is Winnipeg at $389,880, Edmonton at $439,913 and Halifax at $501,830.

Greater Vancouver is, as usual, the most expensive, with prices expected to climb to $1,293,523 by Q4 2023, followed by Toronto at the aforementioned $1,164,665, Ottawa at $770,293 and Calgary at $656,015.

“The aggregate price of a home in Canada increased 3.6 per cent year over year to $802,900 in the third quarter of 2023. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, however, the price decreased by 0.8 per cent, indicating that while many Canadians have adjusted to the increased cost of borrowing, elevated interest rates continue to impact activity in markets across the country,” the release reads.

“While trading volumes in most regions remain sluggish, Canada’s housing market is on solid footing, with pent-up demand building. We don’t anticipate a material change in property prices through the remainder of the year.”

Royal LePage’s team adds that even with more listings available, housing stock is still “well below the level needed to keep a lid on property price increases” across Canada.

“Rent In Toronto Has Become More Affordable”

You’d be hard-pressed to find a renter in Toronto who isn’t paying a preposterous amount for what they’re getting — and devoting all of their income to keeping a roof over their head in the process — but one new study says that despite prices continuously pushing to new heights, renting in Toronto is actually more affordable now than a few years ago.

The report, from Online Mortgage Advisor, compared average monthly rent bills in cities across the globe in 2022 to the same figures from 2018, then did the same for the average salaries of residents.

The findings, released last week, indicate that while the typical tenant in Toronto was allocating 45.51 per cent of their income to housing last year, things were actually worse in 2018, when they would have been handing over around 57.26 per cent of their earnings for rent alone.

This change over four years marks “the biggest positive change in rental affordability in Canada, as well as the biggest in North America” versus other major cities, the firm writes.

But there’s no doubt most who live here would scoff at the assertion.

Given the unprecedented inflationary environment Canadians have been struggling through for many months now, it would be interesting to see how annual stats for 2023 would measure up to analysis.

While these more amplified pressures began in 2021 and peaked to the most accelerated rate of inflation in many decades in mid-2022, rent in particular was 6.5 per cent higher in August 2023 than it was in the same month of 2022, and is now a top cause of our sky-high Consumer Price Index even though headline inflation has eased somewhat.

Add to this the fact that the cost of other necessities have risen to untenable levels — grocery bills, for example, were up 8 per cent year-over-year in August — and it seems doubtful that the cost of living is any more affordable for the average citizen, even if the average rent price in Toronto technically is compared to the average income.

Other interesting takeaways from the report include that 45.5 per cent of cities became less affordable to rent over the years studied, and that Toronto came in eighth in North America for increase in affordability for purchasing property (the average local’s wages could afford them a hilarious four square metres of property in 2019, and 4.6 in 2022).

Also, Moncton, New Brunswick had the most drastic reduction in affordability in Canada by the metric employed, with locals having to put 36 per cent of their paycheque toward rent in 2022, but only 25 per cent in 2018 — numbers that are, of course, nothing compared to Toronto.



Sales on the Toronto Real Estate Board continued their downward trend. In September there were just 4,642 sales – 7.1% lower than last September and 12.1% lower than August. This market is in serious trouble.

Last month we said prices (which have been supported by a lack of listings) are about to drop further. Well here comes all the new listings as predicted –44% higher than September a year ago. Active listings are now 40% higher than this time last year as well. For the last two months our favourite graph has been the sale-to-new listings ratio. It is now sitting at 28.5%. Clearly, we are in a ‘buyers’ market.

The Downtown and Humber Bay condo markets are even in worse shape. The assumption that buyers would shift to cheaper housing does not appear to be true. The sale-to-new listing ratio in this market is 20.4%.


This Chart plots the Sales-To-New Listings Ratio by Month for the first half of 2023. A Balanced Market is when the Sales-To-New Listings Ratio is between 40%-60%. Below 40% indicates a Buyers’ Market and above 60% indicates a Sellers’ market.

Graph Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board.



We previously talked about Average Prices in our July issue to show the impact of seasonality. Average Prices are used in real estate because the public understands the term and believe this number reflects what is happening in the market. When you compare Average Prices between different periods, the assumption again is that the ‘mix’ of sales does not change. This time we looked at Average Prices in September of 2023 versus September of 2022.The Table shows that Average Prices were impacted by more sales over two million dollars, than by any increase in overall house prices.

Perpetuating the use of Average Prices means that sellers are being unrealistic about pricing their property for sale. As the Fall continues, we are going to see more sellers chasing the market downwards. Be prepared to endure these interest rates for another twelve months. If you must sell, price aggressively at the outset. If you don’t need to sell, take your property off the market.



We have passed the peak of the rental market. The number of condos available for lease is now almost 2500. The number leased was 1534 in September. In August, we leased over 2500 units and availability was at 1800 units. In July 2900 units were leased (the market peak). As a result, multiple offers have decreased.

The initial list price to sale/lease price is now sitting at 100% for all bedroom types. Rental prices remained unchanged from last month. Based on the current level of incomes for tenants, it would appear that we have reached maximum rents.

The table below represents average rents by bedroom type for September. Extras for parking ($300) and a second bathroom ($500) per month are still the norm.


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