January sales on TRREB were down 18% from January a year ago, this was not unexpected. New listings were also down by 16%, but more importantly the number of ‘active’ listings (what you can buy) was down by 44% from last year. This number represents just over a half-month’s supply. Still January sales were the second best on record.
Besides comparing the same month between years, we also like to look at the month-to-month change. For January 2022, sales were down by 6% from December. For January 2021, sales were lower by 4% from December. While the difference in changes is small, this may be the start of a pattern.
As anyone can tell you, this shortage of listings has led to a 33% increase in prices based on the Home Price Index. Going forward, our forecast is that we will not see a normal Spring Market. Prices will not continue to increase at current rates. Look for new Government legislation to be introduced by April which will cause the market to ‘pause’ for several months.